Gerrymandering and the Partisan Lean of Districts
When we think about elections here in the US, we normally think of a competitive election between a Republican and a Democrat getting decided on Election Day in November. Both candidates are fighting hard, and it should theoretically be possible for either side to win the seat.
That’s actually no longer the case most of the time.
In most states now, districts are drawn to maximize the number of seats that can be won by one or the other party. Calculations exist to figure out how likely any district will vote for a Democrat or a Republican, based on the last presidential election. Those drawing the districts (usually state legislators) use specialized software that can use election precinct level mapping to figure out voting patterns for the district. The upshot is that the vast majority of Congressional, state legislative districts, and even county level seats can already be determined as to which party will likely win them in November. This is called “gerrymandering”.
Even in states like California and Michigan, where district lines are being drawn by nonpartisan commissions, there are still many seats that have been drawn that end up more likely to favor one party or the other. These are not gerrymandered districts in the sense that they were not intentionally drawn this way, but the way the population has settled, the district has a “partisan lean” that can be calculated. So whether the district is gerrymandered or just has a partisan lean, you’ll hear a seat being described as a safe blue or red seat, or a likely blue or red seat.
What that translates to is that the winner of the election is generally decided in the party primary election, which can be anywhere from March to August. This is not something we are normally used to, but it matters greatly for candidate selection. Both parties have their extreme members and their moderate members, and you see these battles being decided in the primary election now.
What does this mean for Hindu American PAC? When we’re evaluating a candidate and a decision to endorse in a race, we will frequently look to see whether the district is drawn in a way that significantly favors one party or the other. If that is the case, we will factor it into our calculations about which candidate we endorse. It also means that we will evaluate that party’s primary election as the most important election, as opposed to the general election.
If the seat is a true swing seat, however, we will focus on both the party primary election and the general election. The same applies for any state-level or congressional seat in California and Washington state, since those are open primaries in which all candidates run.
If you’d like to read more about gerrymandering and partisan lean, here are the following resources:
Brookings Institution: A Primer on Gerrymandering and Political Polarization
Bloomberg Government: What Gerrymandering Means and Why It’s Here to Stay